For Immediate Release:
2/26/08
Contact: Andrew Dupuy
630-800-8165
Poll: Foster Pulls Ahead
Gaining momentum in race to replace Hastert
Our new tracking survey of likely special election voters in Illinois' 14th Congressional District continues to show a very tight race to replace Dennis Hastert, but Bill Foster has now taken the lead. Foster leads Republican Jim Oberweis by 4 points, 45%-41%. The closeness of the race is highlighted by the generic ballot preference in the district, as 42% prefer a generic Democrat, and 41% prefer a generic Republican.
Vote Support
FEB 6-10 FEB 21-24 CHANGE
Bill Foster 43% 45% +2
Jim Oberweis 45% 41% -4
Undecided 12% 15% +3
Foster continues to hold a significant lead (47%-25%) among the critical segment of voters who identify themselves as Independents. Foster has also succeeded in consolidating his party behind him following the primary, as 89% of self-identified Democrats now say they will vote for the businessman and scientist. On the flip side, Oberweis' biggest problem is his failure to consolidate his party following the negative and divisive Republican primary. Just 76% of self- identified Republicans say they will vote for Oberweis, a number which is less surprising when we see an astonishing 11% of Republicans who are STRONGLY unfavorable to him, a number which has not changed at all since the first survey we conducted (an additional 2% hold somewhat unfavorable views).
Foster's advertising has succeeded in boosting his name recognition significantly, and 51% of voters now say they have a favorable opinion of him - up from 40% just two weeks ago. And among voters who are thus far undecided in the race, Foster's favorable rating is 46%, while his unfavorable rating is just 10%. Oberweis' popularity among undecided voters is much weaker (34% favorable/25% unfavorable).
METHODOLOGICAL NOTE: This memorandum summarizes results from a telephone poll of 402 randomly selected likely voters in Illinois' 14th Congressional District for the special election on March 8, 2008. Interviewing was conducted February 21-24, 2008. Special care was taken to ensure that the geographic and demographic divisions of the actual electorate are properly represented. The estimation error associated with a sample of 402 is 4.9 percent at the 95 percent confidence interval. This means that in 95 of 100 cases, the results of this poll are within 4.9 points, plus or minus, of the results that would have been obtained if all probable voters in the special election in Illinois' 14th Congressional District had been interviewed. |